ew Delhi – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced updates to its 2025 airline industry financial outlook, showing improved profitability over 2024 and resilience in the face of global economic and political shifts.
Highlights from the expected 2025 financial performance include:
- Net profits at $36.0 billion, improved from the $32.4 billion earned in 2024, but slightly down on the previously projected $36.6 billion (December 2024).
- Net profit margin at 3.7%, improved from the 3.4% earned in 2024 and the previously projected 3.6%.
- Return on invested capital at 6.7%, improved from the 6.6% earned in 2024 and largely unchanged from previous projections.
- Operating profits at $66.0 billion, improved from an estimated $61.9 billion in 2024, but down from the previously projected $67.5 billion.
- Total revenues at a record high of $979 billion (+1.3% on 2024, but below the $1 trillion previously projected).
- Total expenses at $913 billion (+1.0% on 2024, but below the previously projected $940 billion).
- Total traveler numbers reaching a record high 4.99 billion (+4% on 2024, but below the previously projected 5.22 billion).
- Total air cargo volumes reaching 69 million tonnes (+0.6% on 2024, but below the previously projected 72.5 million tonnes).
“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets. Nonetheless, by many measures including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections. The biggest positive driver is the price of jet fuel which has fallen 13% compared with 2024 and 1% below previous estimates. Moreover, we anticipate airlines flying more people and more cargo in 2025 than they did in 2024, even if previous demand projections have been dented by trade tensions and falls in consumer confidence. The result is an improvement of net margins from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025. That’s still about half the average profitability across all industries. But considering the headwinds, it’s a strong result that demonstrates the resilience that airlines have worked hard to fortify,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Cargo Revenues
Cargo revenues are expected to be $142 billion in 2025 (-4.7% on 2024).
This is primarily based on the expected impact of reduced GDP growth largely influenced by trade-dampening protectionist measures, including tariffs. As a result, air cargo growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in 2025 (from 11.3% in 2024). The cargo yield is also expected to reduce by 5.2%, reflecting a combination of slower demand growth and lower oil prices.
Although significant uncertainty remains on how trade tensions will evolve over the year, as of April cargo demand was holding up well with a 5.8% year-on-year increase.
Expenses
Industry expenses are expected to grow to $913 billion in 2025 (+1.0% on 2024).
Jet fuel is expected to average $86/barrel in 2025 (well below the $99 average in 2024), translating into a total fuel bill of $236 billion, accounting for 25.8% of all operating costs. This is $25 billion lower than the $261 billion in 2024. Recent financial data show minimal fuel hedging activity over the past year, indicating that airlines will generally benefit from the reduced fuel cost. It is not expected that fuel will be impacted by trade tensions.
Source: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/